Right now, United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa Might is predicted to set off Article 50, formally beginning the method for Britain to go away the European Union — however what occurs subsequent?
Right here’s what it’s essential know.
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty permits any EU nation to go away the EU and descriptions the plan for the exit.
It’s unclear precisely what is going to occur as a result of no nation has ever used Article 50 earlier than. As soon as Article 50 is triggered, the U.Okay. and the EU have two years to succeed in an settlement — until they will agree on an extension. On April 29, leaders of 27 EU nations will meet with out the U.Okay. to provide the European Commission a mandate to barter “Brexit,” as it’s colloquially recognized.
The U.Okay. should pay the EU when it leaves the union and that will probably be topic to negotiations, stated Dr. Andrew Blick, a lecturer in politics and modern historical past at King’s School London.
“It is fairly clear that the U.Okay. should pay one thing,” he advised ABC Information. “The query is how a lot and over how lengthy a time period. This isn’t the one problem however [it is] a big one.”
The standing of EU residents at present within the U.Okay. and U.Okay. residents in EU nations is predicted to be mentioned as nicely, he stated. Whereas the U.Okay. is member of the EU, U.Okay. residents can reside and work in some other EU nation with no visa — and EU residents additionally don’t want a visa to stay within the U.Okay. That’s more likely to change as soon as the U.Okay. leaves, however what about EU residents who already reside and work within the U.Okay.? The U.Okay. authorities has stated that it needs to acknowledge the rights of EU nationals at present within the U.Okay., however that it needs reciprocal rights for the tens of millions of U.Okay. nationals dwelling in Europe.
The U.Okay. can also be hoping to barter what the longer term commerce relationship can be with the EU, which is the U.Okay.’s largest buying and selling companion — however which may not be potential.
“It’s going to be very troublesome inside the two years to truly finalize a free commerce settlement,” Blick stated. If no settlement is made inside the two years, the EU and the U.Okay. can nonetheless proceed to barter — however as soon as the U.Okay. leaves it won’t be a part of the free commerce settlement with the EU till a brand new deal is in place. Within the meantime, the U.Okay. can commerce by way of the World Trade Organization, however that’s not as favorable, stated Blick.
Specialists don’t agree on whether or not the U.Okay. can change its thoughts and stay within the EU after triggering Article 50, nevertheless it is perhaps potential, stated Blick.
“I think that if the U.Okay. says ‘we realized this was a very dangerous concept’ the E.U. may say ‘we aren’t happy, however OK,’” he stated. However that would solely occur if the political state of affairs within the U.Okay. modifications, he added. That might be a shift in public opinion, with extra individuals wanting to remain within the EU, or if one thing modifications inside Might’s Conservative Get together, he defined.
Voters in Scotland are in favor of remaining within the EU, and First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon is looking for a referendum on independence for Scotland in order that Scottish voters can determine in the event that they need to depart the U.Okay., which might, in flip, permit them to stay within the EU.
The Scottish Parliament has backed Sturgeon’s name for a referendum, however the U.Okay. authorities has stated it’s going to block it till the method to go away the EU is finalized. Even when the referendum doesn’t occur, the talk about it might have an affect on public opinion, stated Blick.
“It might contribute to a common sense of, ‘We higher assume once more about this,’” he stated.
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